Post by Dodgers GM on Aug 12, 2024 15:12:10 GMT -5
Another year, another set of predictions coming next week.
Quarterfinals
1. Cubs vs 8. Yankees
Seeding if done by points: 2. Cubs vs 3. Yankees
Seeding by points for July onwards: 2. Cubs vs 3. Yankees
I thought getting the 1 seed was supposed to reward you somehow? It seems every year that the 1 seed is cursed as for countless years in a row the 1 seed has been bounced in the first round. This year, it's the Cubs turn to deal with the curse.
These are two very good teams that both deserve to make it to the second round. By points, this is much closer than a usual 1-8 matchup - Cubs were 2nd overall in scoring for the regular season and for July onwards, Yankees were 3rd. Fun fact: if you take the past two weeks scoring, it's only 674-670.5 in favor of the Cubs.
The Cubs are loaded with hitters with two prospective AL MVPs in Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto, while the Yankees aren't far behind in hitting with Royce Lewis and Gunnar Henderson (and the rest of the Orioles) and added, of all people, Paul Skenes at the deadline.
For me this one comes down to pitching and which team is healthier. Cubs have just lost Soriano and Littell, Yankees just lost Ketel Marte to a DTD injury. I can very easily see it going either way - Cubs bash their way to a win, Yankees pitch their way to one. Super tough to predict, but...
Pick: The curse continues - Yankees (but it's pretty much 50/50)
2. Orioles vs 7.Astros
Seeding if done by points: 5. Orioles vs 8. Astros
Seeding by points for July onwards: 5. Orioles vs 7. Astros
The Orioles have won another division title behind Yordan, Kwan, and Ohtani who's putting up another MVP season from the DH spot - what an incredible player! Tons of young talent on this team as well providing depth, although losing Jordan Westburg is a big piece to lose unfortunately.
The Astros locked up a playoff spot fairly early but slumped towards the back end of the year, losing Joe Ryan to injury for the rest of the year really stings. However, Garrett Crochet turned into a bona-fide ace this year - and what a contract extension he was locked into!!
Even with injuries there's enough here for either team to win - O's adding Schwellenbach is a huge X-factor, Astros seeing Kikuchi move to an actual playoff team could be huge for his points for. If the Astros pull off an upset it will come down to hitting, with Raleigh, Naylor, and Luis Garcia Jr. all very hot over the past month and Garcia fulfilling some of his potential.
Pick: Orioles
3. Dodgers vs 6. Tigers
Seeding if done by points: 1. Dodgers vs 6. Tigers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 1. Dodgers vs 4. Tigers
Could I have faced anyone else other than the Tigers please?? Being top scoring doesn't mean much when the team you're facing has just added Aaron Nola and Blake Snell to go with Zach Wheeler and a really solid roster of SPs including Severino, Fried, Eflin, Sanchez, and the returning Verlander.
I don't have quite the SP roster, although it's a little close with Sale, Castillo, Lopez, et al. The real strength of my team is in the hitting with Judge, Vladdy, Lindor, take your pick of MVP candidate. That is what it will take to beat this great Tigers team in round 1 who are entering as the hottest team in the league - 411 last week!! Will they stay hot is the big question? Or is last week a 1 off? Will my hitting outpace the starters?
The real narrative behind all this - these were the two teams that were the finalists in trade talks for Nola and Snell. Really hoping that I'm not about to regret not outbidding the Tigers for those two...we'll see! Would make for a really good narrative about why you should always give up a lot for SPs, no questions asked (so if I put guys on the block this offseason, pay up!)
In short:
Pick: Dodgers (barely?)
4. Padres vs 5. A's
Seeding if done by points: 4. Padres vs 7. A's
Seeding by points for July onwards: 6. Padres vs 8. A's
Take it easy on the old guy!! That's what Alan has been saying in the group chat all season, and it's led him all the way to a 4 seed and his first playoff appearance. The A's started really, really strong but unfortunately ran into the same issue this year as they did last year - injuries, especially to SPs.
Alan's got a deep team headed by Anthony Santander and all his Padres - Merrill (he wants a haul), Profar, King, Waldron, etc. Getting Reynaldo Lopez back soon could really help him.
A's have such a great team on paper if everybody's healthy - the problem is most of these pitchers won't be back till next year. Still though, adding Mookie Betts could really put him over the top here. I could easily see a Betts / JRam / Cease / Devers star turn pull out a win...but I don't think the old guy's first playoff appearance will end in round 1.
Pick: Padres
Semifinals
8. Yankees vs 4. Padres
Seeding if done by points: 3. Yankees vs. 4 Padres
Seeding by points for July onwards: 3. Yankees vs 6. Padres
3. vs 4. in points! That's more like it for a solid semi final. Both teams were really good at remaining consistent throughout the year and scoring 300+ week in, week out. In many ways the prior matchup (Cubs / Yankees) is practically a semi final, especially on points.
The Yankees had just a bit more high-end scoring performances than the Padres, scoring 350+ 4 times to the Padres 2. The question may become as things get deeper into August / September - how long will the Pirates let Skenes pitch? I think he goes long enough and that there's enough other higher-end talent that this tips the Yankees way.
Pick: Yankees
2. Orioles vs 3. Dodgers
Seeding if done by points: 5. Orioles vs 1. Dodgers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 5. Orioles vs 1. Dodgers
A 2-3 matchup in our other semi. Again, the O's have put together a really great young squad, so many young reinforcements this year: Keith, Lee, Festa, Scott all call ups this year that have played a big role. If Scott can make it back this year that's another arm to help out, but I do think that as long as my hitting stays healthy (and hot!) I'll have enough to make another final.
Pick: Dodgers
Finals
8. Yankees vs 3. Dodgers
Seeding if done by points: 3. Yankees vs 1. Dodgers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 3. Yankees vs 1. Dodgers
In my opinion, this is the last chance the rest of the league has to win a championship before the Yankees go on a Cubs-like run. Let's do a quick run-down of all the guys locked into rookie deals / prospects that the Yankees have: Adley, Vinnie P., Lewis, Gunnar, Cowser, Carter, Langford, Tovar, Bibee, Kirby, Skubal, Stone, Holliday, Bradley, Jung, Skenes, Anthony, Mayo, Ryan, Thorpe - this list goes forever! Give us a chance this year to win one before you start winning everything with all those prospects and all that cap room.
Which brings me to my pick - I think I do win that before the Yankees start up fully. Is it being a homer to pick your own team? Probably, but I have been tops in points all year and since July and think I have a little bit more higher-end performance chances: more SPs (at least at the moment sitting here on August 19th), more times over 350 and 400 points scored than anybody in the league, etc. And if I'm wrong, well it's like Brooklyn Dodgers fans always used to say - there's always next year!
Pick: This year is next year - Dodgers
Past Predictions:
2023: 4/7. Curse of the 1 seed strikes again!
2022: 3/7, a bad year last year. Hope to be better in 2023!
2021: 7/7! Wish I had picked myself to win the finals and gotten that right too
2020: 4/4 for the quarters, 2/2 in the semis, but got the finals wrong - Cubs 3 peat! 6/7
2019: 3/4 for the quarters, picked myself and lost in the semis, but got the finals right! 5/7
2018: Not so good this year...got all quarterfinals right but wrong on the rest. 4/7
2017: Got all picks right! 7/7
2016: Got all quarterfinal and semifinal picks right, got the final wrong. 6/7 in predictions
Quarterfinals
1. Cubs vs 8. Yankees
Seeding if done by points: 2. Cubs vs 3. Yankees
Seeding by points for July onwards: 2. Cubs vs 3. Yankees
I thought getting the 1 seed was supposed to reward you somehow? It seems every year that the 1 seed is cursed as for countless years in a row the 1 seed has been bounced in the first round. This year, it's the Cubs turn to deal with the curse.
These are two very good teams that both deserve to make it to the second round. By points, this is much closer than a usual 1-8 matchup - Cubs were 2nd overall in scoring for the regular season and for July onwards, Yankees were 3rd. Fun fact: if you take the past two weeks scoring, it's only 674-670.5 in favor of the Cubs.
The Cubs are loaded with hitters with two prospective AL MVPs in Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto, while the Yankees aren't far behind in hitting with Royce Lewis and Gunnar Henderson (and the rest of the Orioles) and added, of all people, Paul Skenes at the deadline.
For me this one comes down to pitching and which team is healthier. Cubs have just lost Soriano and Littell, Yankees just lost Ketel Marte to a DTD injury. I can very easily see it going either way - Cubs bash their way to a win, Yankees pitch their way to one. Super tough to predict, but...
Pick: The curse continues - Yankees (but it's pretty much 50/50)
2. Orioles vs 7.Astros
Seeding if done by points: 5. Orioles vs 8. Astros
Seeding by points for July onwards: 5. Orioles vs 7. Astros
The Orioles have won another division title behind Yordan, Kwan, and Ohtani who's putting up another MVP season from the DH spot - what an incredible player! Tons of young talent on this team as well providing depth, although losing Jordan Westburg is a big piece to lose unfortunately.
The Astros locked up a playoff spot fairly early but slumped towards the back end of the year, losing Joe Ryan to injury for the rest of the year really stings. However, Garrett Crochet turned into a bona-fide ace this year - and what a contract extension he was locked into!!
Even with injuries there's enough here for either team to win - O's adding Schwellenbach is a huge X-factor, Astros seeing Kikuchi move to an actual playoff team could be huge for his points for. If the Astros pull off an upset it will come down to hitting, with Raleigh, Naylor, and Luis Garcia Jr. all very hot over the past month and Garcia fulfilling some of his potential.
Pick: Orioles
3. Dodgers vs 6. Tigers
Seeding if done by points: 1. Dodgers vs 6. Tigers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 1. Dodgers vs 4. Tigers
Could I have faced anyone else other than the Tigers please?? Being top scoring doesn't mean much when the team you're facing has just added Aaron Nola and Blake Snell to go with Zach Wheeler and a really solid roster of SPs including Severino, Fried, Eflin, Sanchez, and the returning Verlander.
I don't have quite the SP roster, although it's a little close with Sale, Castillo, Lopez, et al. The real strength of my team is in the hitting with Judge, Vladdy, Lindor, take your pick of MVP candidate. That is what it will take to beat this great Tigers team in round 1 who are entering as the hottest team in the league - 411 last week!! Will they stay hot is the big question? Or is last week a 1 off? Will my hitting outpace the starters?
The real narrative behind all this - these were the two teams that were the finalists in trade talks for Nola and Snell. Really hoping that I'm not about to regret not outbidding the Tigers for those two...we'll see! Would make for a really good narrative about why you should always give up a lot for SPs, no questions asked (so if I put guys on the block this offseason, pay up!)
In short:
Pick: Dodgers (barely?)
4. Padres vs 5. A's
Seeding if done by points: 4. Padres vs 7. A's
Seeding by points for July onwards: 6. Padres vs 8. A's
Take it easy on the old guy!! That's what Alan has been saying in the group chat all season, and it's led him all the way to a 4 seed and his first playoff appearance. The A's started really, really strong but unfortunately ran into the same issue this year as they did last year - injuries, especially to SPs.
Alan's got a deep team headed by Anthony Santander and all his Padres - Merrill (he wants a haul), Profar, King, Waldron, etc. Getting Reynaldo Lopez back soon could really help him.
A's have such a great team on paper if everybody's healthy - the problem is most of these pitchers won't be back till next year. Still though, adding Mookie Betts could really put him over the top here. I could easily see a Betts / JRam / Cease / Devers star turn pull out a win...but I don't think the old guy's first playoff appearance will end in round 1.
Pick: Padres
Semifinals
8. Yankees vs 4. Padres
Seeding if done by points: 3. Yankees vs. 4 Padres
Seeding by points for July onwards: 3. Yankees vs 6. Padres
3. vs 4. in points! That's more like it for a solid semi final. Both teams were really good at remaining consistent throughout the year and scoring 300+ week in, week out. In many ways the prior matchup (Cubs / Yankees) is practically a semi final, especially on points.
The Yankees had just a bit more high-end scoring performances than the Padres, scoring 350+ 4 times to the Padres 2. The question may become as things get deeper into August / September - how long will the Pirates let Skenes pitch? I think he goes long enough and that there's enough other higher-end talent that this tips the Yankees way.
Pick: Yankees
2. Orioles vs 3. Dodgers
Seeding if done by points: 5. Orioles vs 1. Dodgers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 5. Orioles vs 1. Dodgers
A 2-3 matchup in our other semi. Again, the O's have put together a really great young squad, so many young reinforcements this year: Keith, Lee, Festa, Scott all call ups this year that have played a big role. If Scott can make it back this year that's another arm to help out, but I do think that as long as my hitting stays healthy (and hot!) I'll have enough to make another final.
Pick: Dodgers
Finals
8. Yankees vs 3. Dodgers
Seeding if done by points: 3. Yankees vs 1. Dodgers
Seeding by points for July onwards: 3. Yankees vs 1. Dodgers
In my opinion, this is the last chance the rest of the league has to win a championship before the Yankees go on a Cubs-like run. Let's do a quick run-down of all the guys locked into rookie deals / prospects that the Yankees have: Adley, Vinnie P., Lewis, Gunnar, Cowser, Carter, Langford, Tovar, Bibee, Kirby, Skubal, Stone, Holliday, Bradley, Jung, Skenes, Anthony, Mayo, Ryan, Thorpe - this list goes forever! Give us a chance this year to win one before you start winning everything with all those prospects and all that cap room.
Which brings me to my pick - I think I do win that before the Yankees start up fully. Is it being a homer to pick your own team? Probably, but I have been tops in points all year and since July and think I have a little bit more higher-end performance chances: more SPs (at least at the moment sitting here on August 19th), more times over 350 and 400 points scored than anybody in the league, etc. And if I'm wrong, well it's like Brooklyn Dodgers fans always used to say - there's always next year!
Pick: This year is next year - Dodgers
Past Predictions:
2023: 4/7. Curse of the 1 seed strikes again!
2022: 3/7, a bad year last year. Hope to be better in 2023!
2021: 7/7! Wish I had picked myself to win the finals and gotten that right too
2020: 4/4 for the quarters, 2/2 in the semis, but got the finals wrong - Cubs 3 peat! 6/7
2019: 3/4 for the quarters, picked myself and lost in the semis, but got the finals right! 5/7
2018: Not so good this year...got all quarterfinals right but wrong on the rest. 4/7
2017: Got all picks right! 7/7
2016: Got all quarterfinal and semifinal picks right, got the final wrong. 6/7 in predictions
